December can mean only one thing (no, not drunken hook-ups at office parties): Time for the marketing/advertising industry players to come out with their predictions for 2011. That’s right, it’s that time of year when darts are thrown at the board, crystal balls are checked and tea leaves are read. It’s been my experience that the more you know, the less likely your predictions are to come true. In that case, I should be spot on. But just to be safe, here are 5 Marketing/Advertising predictions for 2011 that I’m pretty confident won’t come true.
1. The ad industry will stop trying to come up with a “new model”
Along with “sun rises in the East,” numerous “a new model for the ad industry” posts are an absolute lock. I’m certainly guilty as charged. I think the “new model” will only be recognizable in retrospect, after it’s actually started to be used in practice. With so many barriers to entry knocked down (location, technology, etc.), resulting in so many small agencies having the opportunity to make a big impact, it’s impossible to even know where to look for the “next big thing.”
There are certainly some visionary folks out there, tap dancing on the outer edges and blazing new trails (Bud Caddell and Faris Yakob come to mind). But a lot of what is being said is just variations on a theme. I found myself at times this summer asking questions like: “Does the world really need another opinion on the Gap logo fiasco?” Invariably my answer was, “no.” The antidote? Maybe I’ll create a Twitter list of 100 people who have absolutely nothing to do with advertising/marketing. I bet that list would be not only refreshing, but eye-opening.
3. There will be unanimous consensus that 2011 will be the “Year of X” and everyone will be right
2010 was the Year of “location-based marketing.” Or maybe one of these 10 things. No wait, 2010 was the “Year Marketing Dies.” 2011 figures to be all about the Chief Orchestrator (#6), unless it’s about Deal-Based Advertising. Listen, I can’t predict what I’m going to have for lunch tomorrow, so suggesting I have an idea of what’s going to capture the attention of consumers, what new technologies are going to jump out, or how culture is going to shift is crazy. Let’s just all try to be nimble and react quickly.
4. Twitter is dead
I know because John Mayer told me so.
5. Social Media/advertising/PR/branding/media/marketing people will stop caring about lists and rankings
AdAge Power 150. Klout. TwitterGrader. The collective effort spent trying to game these systems or seeing who is at the top of the charts, we’re it to be redirected, could probably be used to solve issues like world hunger or the U.S. debt. (P.S. – If you could please tweet, bookmark and share this post, that would be super. Thanks a lot.)