Defying definitions

At this point it’s pretty hard to avoid Tim Tebow as a piece of popular culture. He’s the biggest story so far in this NFL season, as he’s led his team, the Denver Broncos, to first place in their division, winning seven of the eight games he’s started. His signature move, taking to one knee in a moment of quiet prayer, has taken on a life of its own, as fans around the world have started “Tebowing.”

Personally, I don’t find the issue of his faith that interesting. He seems genuine and while he’s certainly not shy about verbalizing his faith, he isn’t the first athlete to mention religion within the context of sport. We’ve become used to athletes thanking God, or forming prayer circles after games. So while The New Times calls Tebow the Mile-High Messiah, and The Wall Street Journal refers to him as God’s Quarterback, what I find far more interesting is how the football community has struggled with Tim Tebow.

Tebow had great success in college, winning the Heisman Trophy (best college player) and led his team to the national championship twice. When he graduated, “the experts” said he wouldn’t make it in the pros because he didn’t fit the classic pro model. Plenty of college standouts, Heisman Trophy winners in fact, fall into this category. Since 2001 alone Troy Smith and Eric Crouch were both Heisman Trophy-winning college QBs with little or no pro success. Another, Jason White of Oklahoma also failed to make it in the pros, but for another reason. If you take a little bit deeper look at those three, you start to see why Tebow is such an enigma to “the experts.”

Like Tebow, Crouch was a white quarterback at a national powerhouse school who was often a run first, pass second player. Crouch played for four NFL teams in three seasons before getting bounced from the league. A running white QB? No shot, said “the experts” and Crouch was proof. Jason White was a white quarterback at a national powerhouse school, who played the position “like it’s supposed to be played.” Due to injuries he never was able to take his career to the next level. That’s a shame, but that’s the way it goes sometimes. “The experts” understand that.  Troy Smith was a black quarterback at a national powerhouse school who was often a run first, pass second player. “The experts” have seen plenty of those and knew that, with a few exceptions, those don’t work in the NFL either. But they certainly have a better shot of working than a white QB who runs better than he throws. That model just doesn’t exist, never has really.

Sure, Fran Tarkenton ran around a lot, and Steve Young was quite athletic. But they still worked within a fundamentally conventional offense.  Tim Tebow wasn’t going to work because “the experts” in the NFL are traditionalists. In fact the NFL tries hard to keep innovation out of the league. Coaches are supposed to do things by the book, even when the book has been proven to be wrong, statistically speaking.

“The experts” hold a lot of power in the NFL world, always have. It’s because of “the experts” that Warren Moon had to play in Canada before starting his Hall of Fame NFL career. See, Warren Moon is black, and in the late-70s / early-80s black guys didn’t play QB in the NFL. You know who else didn’t play QB in the NFL? Short guys. So Doug Flutie (also a Heisman Trophy winner) was always questioned despite winning awards and championships in Canada. At 5’10″ he just wasn’t tall enough to be effective in the NFL. Never mind the fact that Flutie, over 12 NFL seasons, had a winning record.

And now “the experts,” just like with Moon or Flutie, or Doug Williams (1st black QB to win a Super Bowl) or Pat Haden (only 5’11″) have something with Tebow that doesn’t fit their worldview. Quarterbacks are supposed to be tall (Tebow, check), and white (Tebow, check), and sit in the pocket (whoops). You know, like Ryan Leaf (6’5″) or Heath Shuler (6’2″). Combined NFL record of those two players? 12-31. Or first overall draft picks Jeff George (6’4″) and David Carr (6’3″), two other prototypical white QBs who amassed  a combined 70-136 record.

This is the real issue with Tebow. His 7-1 record flies in the face of everything “the experts” know to be true. This of course is

Tebowing Sweeps America

doubling maddening because we know that “the experts” not only fail to recognize talent (Moon, Flutie), but they also inaccurately predict future success (Leaf, Shuler). When they get it wrong, “the experts” have to admit that they know about as much as the average fan when it comes to predicting success.

No matter which way you turn with Tebow, he defies easy explanation, categorization or definition. If you believe running QBs can’t succeed in the NFL, Tebow proves you wrong. If you concede that a running QB might work in the NFL, but only if he is Michael Vick or Donavan McNabb or Steve McNair (i.e. black), Tebow proves you wrong. If a QB has to be a pocket passer, Tebow proves you wrong.

But what if just like all the Joe Morgans of baseball refused to believe in the Bill James-style of statistical analysis made famous by the book,Moneyball, you say, “In football it’s not about the stats, you can just look at a guy and tell if he’s going to be good”? Well, Tebow doesn’t “look” good. His throwing mechanics are awful. He’s built like a fullback, not a quarterback. Anybody who watched him practice for 15 minutes said, “this kid will never make it in the NFL as a QB.” But Tebow proves them wrong.  What if you do believe that statistics don’t lie, can you make an argument for Tebow then? It’s pretty hard to for the first 45 minutes of the game. His best stat is based on what he doesn’t do, turn the ball over.

Tim Tebow is getting a lot of attention for what he is not – neither a black, running QB or a traditional, white QB – as for what he is: a winner. And while “the experts” love a winner, they do so only on their terms. I don’t think Tebow’s religious beliefs have much to do with how “the experts” view him. Kurt Warner, also an evangelical christian, is part of the establishment. Ray Lewis, a revered figure in the NFL was convicted of obstruction of justice in a murder case. Morals, in the NFL, take a back seat to whether or not you can play. But you better play the way you are expected to. In the case of Warner, that means being a traditional pocket passer. For Lewis, that’s being a ferocious linebacker.

Tim Tebow is more than likely going to lose his next start (against the New England Patriots) and all “the experts” will be able to say, “see, I told you so,” conveniently forgetting about the other 10 QBs, all of the traditional variety, who also lost to Tom Brady and the Pats this year. That one loss, and maybe another in the playoffs should the Broncos make it, is all “the experts” will need to prove that Tebow is a failure. Then the Broncos legendary QB and current Executive VP of Football Operations, John Elway, himself a pretty mobile quarterback, will be off the hook. He can safely trade for, draft or otherwise acquire the traditional QB the Broncos so clearly need.

Tags: broncos playoffs, conventional wisdom, nfl experts, tebow, tebow broncos, tebowing